New Delhi, February 2026 — India’s agricultural sector stands at a volatile crossroads as the “Chalo Delhi” protests intensify. While the immediate spark is a pending trade deal with the United States, the underlying friction points to a much harsher reality: India’s current farming model, once the hero of the Green Revolution, is now an obsolete system struggling to survive in a globalized economy.
The Trade Deal Trigger
The announcement of the India-US Trade Agreement, scheduled for February 2026, has sent shockwaves through farmer unions. Critics label the deal a “total surrender,” fearing that heavily subsidized American produce—including apples, almonds, and soybeans—will dump into Indian markets and crush domestic prices.
The anxiety is backed by data: between January and November 2025, agricultural imports from the US jumped by 34%, reaching $2.9 billion. However, experts suggest the trade deal is merely the “warning bell” for a deeper structural rot.
The Productivity Paradox: Giants vs. Ants
The most staggering takeaway from the current crisis is the sheer gap in efficiency between India and the West.
- The Workforce: Nearly 46% of India’s workforce is tied to the soil, yet they generate only $50–55 billion in exports.
- The Comparison: In the US, only 1.3% of the population farms, yet they produce an export value exceeding $190 billion.
In economic terms, India is suffering from “disguised unemployment.” Millions are trapped in a sector that absorbs labor but fails to generate wealth. While India recently overtook China in wheat production, the average Indian farmer holds just one hectare of land—180 times less than their American counterparts—making modern mechanization a financial impossibility.
The “Mandi” Monopoly and the Missing Billions
The APMC (Mandi) system, originally built to protect farmers, has evolved into a restrictive bottleneck. India requires roughly 42,000 mandis for efficient coverage, but only 7,000 are functional.
This scarcity has allowed a handful of intermediaries (middlemen) to monopolize the trade. For every ₹100 a consumer spends on crops, the farmer often sees only ₹25 to ₹40. The rest is swallowed by a system that has become, in the words of critics, “a fence that eats the crops.”
Farm Law 2.0: From Welfare to Wealth
The failure of the 2020 Farm Laws is now being viewed not as a failure of economic logic, but as a “trust deficit” between the state and the street. Analysts argue that India doesn’t just need the old laws back; it needs a “Farm Law 2.0” focused on three pillars:
- Breaking Monopolies: Allowing private players to compete with government mandis to drive up prices for farmers.
- Contract Safeguards: Implementing fast-track courts to ensure big corporations cannot exploit small landholders.
- Policy Certainty: Ending the habit of “overnight export bans” that prevent farmers from benefiting when global prices rise.
Bottom Line
The current protests expose a painful truth: India’s agricultural system has become a “welfare sink” rather than a “wealth engine.” The average farmer’s monthly income of ₹10,000–12,000 is a symptom of a dying architecture.
As the government and unions clash, the choice is no longer between being “pro-farmer” or “pro-corporate.” It is a choice between managed stagnation—keeping the system broken to save votes—and painful growth—reforming the system to save the future of Indian agriculture.
