February 24, 2026– U.S. Department of Commerce announced a preliminary 125.87% countervailing duty (CVD) on solar imports from India. This decision has sent ripples through the renewable energy sector, as it effectively makes the U.S. market cost-prohibitive for many Indian manufacturers.
Here is the detailed breakdown of the situation:
1. The Core Decision
The U.S. Commerce Department determined that Indian solar producers benefit from unfair government subsidies, allowing them to sell products in the U.S. at prices that undercut domestic manufacturers.
- Target: Crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not assembled into modules).
- The Rate: A preliminary duty of ~126% for India.
- Other Countries: Indonesia and Laos were also hit with preliminary duties ranging from 81% to 143%.
- The Petitioner: The investigation was triggered by a complaint from the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, which includes major players like First Solar and Hanwha Qcells.
2. Market and Economic Context
The timing is particularly notable because it comes amidst shifting trade policies under the Trump administration:
- Separate from Global Tariffs: This 126% duty is additional to the general 10% baseline tariff recently imposed by the administration on all imports.
- Explosive Growth: Solar imports from India to the U.S. surged from $83.86 million in 2022 to nearly $793 million in 2024, as developers sought alternatives to Chinese-linked products from Southeast Asia.
- Impact on Stocks: Following the news, shares of major Indian solar firms like Waaree Energies and Premier Energies saw double-digit declines (up to 15%) in initial trading.
3. Industry Response
The impact varies significantly depending on the company’s business model:
- Pure Exporters: Companies heavily reliant on the U.S. market face a “near-closure” of that channel. Analysts from Citi noted that these rates make Indian panels commercially unviable in the U.S. compared to domestic alternatives.
- Diversified Players: Firms like Vikram Solar and Waaree have stated that the financial impact may be limited because they source cells for U.S. orders from third countries with lower tariff exposures or are focusing heavily on India’s massive domestic demand.
- Indian Government Position: Top officials from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) have indicated that the government will likely not intervene diplomatically, advising companies to seek legal recourse and appeal through the appropriate trade forums.
4. What Happens Next?
The current duties are preliminary, meaning the “final” impact is still being determined.
| Date | Milestone |
| April 2026 | Expected preliminary determination on Anti-Dumping (AD) duties (which could add even more costs). |
| July 6, 2026 | Scheduled date for the Final Determination by the Commerce Department. |
| October 2026 | Final injury determination by the International Trade Commission (ITC); if affirmative, duties become permanent for a set period. |
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